No Brain Activated: Contractual Lottery
Written by Don Landrigan   
Wednesday, 31 March 2010 08:39
We're getting damn close to the lottery, and this year promises to be one of the biggest ever... if not THE biggest ever.

What's that?  The draft lottery?
Hell no... I'm talking about the LeBron James sweepstakes, and what losing in them is going to mean.
lbjlaugh
There are a quite a few players with an 'available' tag coming up on: LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, Amar'e Stoudemire, Manu Ginobli, Carlos Boozer... and if you extend the list to include ETO (Early Termination Option) and restricted free agents, the entire group is massive.

However, there are definitely more destinations than players worthy of being called 'elite'.  This is going to inevitably lead to some players getting given contracts that will a millstone on their new franchise for some time to come.  Contracts the like of which were given to Stephon Marbury.  To Steve "Franchise" Francis.  To Eddy Curry.

dollar_symbolIt's hard to say who'll be the recipient of such a contract this off season, but given the fact that there are going to be several franchises with bulging pockets, and no-one to spend it on - there are bound to be a few sizeable contracts that get handed out in the heat of the moment.
Contracts that but a few months down the track, teams will wish they could take back.
For let's be perfectly honest: whilst a few of the aforementioned players may move around, LeBron's likely to remain where he is.  And when that happens, there'll be the mad rush to get Wade... Stoudemire... Bosh... Boozer... and so on (can anyone imagine Kobe not being a Laker???).

Sooner rather than later, the quality's going to run out.  That's going to happen before teams run out of money too... so as it does every season there are going to be some head-scratchers.
That's REALLY going to be obvious this season, because a lot of the contracts made this off-season are going to impacted by the looming Collective Bargaining Agreement.

Speculation is that the CBA will include a shortening of contracts, and a lessening of their max-value (smart money should be on David Stern getting his way).  Except that already existing contracts will be honoured, grandfathered into whatever system the CBA creates.

So this off-season?  Expect teams to be pushing for 3-5 year contracts, and players to be grabbing at the full 7.
And it's a guarantee that some teams will fold before the players do.
Hell... I'd bet that there'll be some teams that will jump out of the gates offering 'stupid money' to some of the free/restricted agents out there. dubs

What teams?  I could see New York ending up making some bone-headers... Golden State too.

Which player's going to benefit on an offer of money that vastly outstrips his playing ability?  That's tough... I'm going to suggest that we keep our eyes on Anthony Tolliver.
Guy's playing well, and has made the most of his opportunities at Golden State.  He's a big forward with range.  He is a restricted agent, but I'm betting someone'll offer him money that the Dubs won't match.
That's my bet.

But there'll be others.  Other stupidity.  Other No Brain Activated offers.  That is for sure.


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Comments (7)Add Comment
Great article
written by mookie @ A Stern Warning, March 31, 2010
I'd be interested to see fans of each team come up with a player on their squad who they think will be offered stupid money by another team.

In Portland, the only real candidate in terms of FAs is Marcus Camby.
...
written by DeROK, March 31, 2010
The Wolves will probably throw dumb money at somebody. By the time it comes to people who are actually considering Minnesota, all the good free agents will be gone. Here's hoping Kahn is smart enough to just "pass" vs. offering a dumb contract to somebody who's really not worth it.
...
written by mookie @ A Stern Warning, March 31, 2010
DeROK, it's refreshing to hear from a fan of a team like the Timberwolves, who have been near the bottom of the league and still you are not begging for desperate moves to get to the top. The steady building approach is a good one. The T-Wolves are still obviously a couple of years away from playoff contention but have some solid blocks in place for the future. This is the way to build -- ask the Thunder and Blazers -- the opposite of the Knicks.
Gaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah!!!
written by College Wolf, March 31, 2010
As long as the TWolves don't try to sign someone like Rudy Gay for $140 million over 12 years I'll be happy...
Inevitable...
written by Don (With Malice), March 31, 2010
I love how it's pretty much taken by all of us as being a given that teams are going to give out stupid contracts. The fans'll see it. The other teams will see it. It'll just go down as exuberance... with a lot of money attached.
I know, right?
written by CollegeWolf, March 31, 2010
The NBA... it's FAAAANtastic.
...
written by Ezra (The Purple And Gold Blog), April 01, 2010
No one is immune to handing out dumb money. Just ask the Lakers. But this summer's sweepstakes will revolve around where Lebron will end up. I think he stays in Cleveland IF he's assured someone like Stoudamire, Bosh, or Wade is signed as well. He may have designed his contract similar to D-Wade so that the two could play together, but I think Lebron will ask for a big man. I've heard both sides will have the leverage for the CBA from different people. Whatever the case may be, this is going to be one hell of a summer for the NBA.

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